The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged or raising them by 25 basis points in October is close to 50-50

According to data from CME's "Federal Reserve Watch", the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged at 3.75% -4.00% at its October meeting is 49.6%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 50.4%; The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged at 3.75% -4.00% until December is 8.5%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 49.8%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 41.8%. AI interpretation: The market's pricing of the short-term interest rate path of the Federal Reserve is in a highly divergent state, and the probability game between raising interest rates and maintaining the status quo reflects the high uncertainty of policy prospects. This evenly matched expected distribution directly increases the market's sensitivity to subsequent policy statements. Investors are hedging against the risk of a shift in monetary policy through pricing adjustments. The current interest rate expectations are at a critical turning point, and any small change in policy signals will trigger severe market volatility.