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After Wednesday's PCE data was released, the October rate hike expectation dropped from 66% to the current 27.7%. Tonight's non-farm payroll data release will provide new direction. But judging from $BTC's rise since last night through today, the market seems to be pricing in the possibility that tonight's non-farm data will fall within expectations, without showing strong numbers or colder-than-expected figures. As long as employment data doesn't show a strong rebound, the probability of a rate hike won't increase significantly. So, if tonight's employment data falls within the expected range, the first thing to check is whether wage growth is also below expectations. If it's higher than expected, don't get overly bullish.
