Non farm employment data falls short of expectations, with the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in October rising to 85%

Kalshi predicts that market pricing shows an 85% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in October. This non farm employment added 29000 people, lower than the market expectation of 84000 people, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. AI interpretation: The significant slowdown in employment growth directly reveals the weak demand in the labor market. The rising unemployment rate further confirms the weakening of economic momentum, providing solid macro support for the Federal Reserve to stop raising interest rates. The market's pricing for maintaining interest rates unchanged reflects deep concerns about the risk of economic downturn. This data completely puts an end to the need for further tightening in the short term and forces policymakers to shift their focus to preventing recession.