Loading...
Whoa, Treasury yields are skyrocketing! The 10-year Treasury yield has hit 5.24% The 10-year Treasury yield is the anchor for global asset pricing. When the risk-free rate stays around 5% for a long time, the strategy of borrowing cheap money, buying overvalued assets, and waiting for valuation expansion starts to fail. The last time the U.S. experienced a prolonged rise in interest rates was from the 1960s to the early 1980s. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed from around 4% to over 15%, during a period marked by fiscal expansion, oil crises, and high inflation. It only ended with Volcker’s aggressive rate hikes. The result? Long-term bonds got crushed, stock valuations were suppressed, and high-leverage, financing-dependent business models struggled to survive. The most immediate impacts now are threefold: 1. Growth stock valuations remain under pressure. 2. Corporate and real estate financing is getting more expensive. 3. Cash and short-term bonds are becoming attractive again. In the past, a tech company just had to pitch a growth story, and the market would give it a valuation dozens of times over. Now investors ask first: “Why should I take the risk of buying you when I can earn 5% just by holding Treasuries?” As for the crypto space, $BTC can still rely on its scarcity, monetary properties, and institutional allocation narrative. $ETH and $SOL at least have on-chain economies and cash flow expectations. But a ton of altcoins with no revenue, no buybacks, and no real demand? They’re already on the road to zero.