BitUnix analyst: Non farm unexpected cooling, weak employment provides space for the Federal Reserve to postpone interest rate hikes According to BlockBeats, on October 5th, the non farm payroll in the United States increased by only 29000 people in September, far below the market expectation of 90000 people. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and the total number of new jobs added in July and August was revised down by 60000, with an average three-month growth rate of about 50000 people. The average hourly wage has only increased by 0.1% per month and 3.0% per year, indicating a synchronous slowdown in recruitment momentum and salary pressure. Although the September data may be affected by seasonal adjustments and calendar factors, and initial jobless claims remain low with no significant increase in layoffs, the pattern of "low recruitment, low layoffs" indicates that companies are more inclined to retain existing employees rather than actively expanding their workforce, and the resilience of the labor market is shifting from strong demand to stock support. After the non farm payroll announcement, the market quickly lowered its expectations for a rate hike in October, and the policy focus further shifted from "whether to raise interest rates in October" to "whether there is still a need to raise interest rates by the end of the year". This increases the importance of the upcoming FOMC minutes, ISM services sector, and subsequent inflation data; If the cooling of employment can continue, the Federal Reserve will have more waiting space, but service industry prices and energy costs may still limit the extent of policy shift. Especially with the G7 announcing the release of up to 100 million barrels of crude oil and diesel reserves in the next four months, and the United States also lifting its ban on diesel exports, this will help alleviate the impact on energy supply in the short term, but it has not changed the basic environment where supply from the Middle East and Russia is still disrupted. Therefore, what is truly worth paying attention to at present is not a single non farm payroll figure, but whether the "cooling of employment" can align with the "cooling of inflation". If both are synchronized, the necessity for the Federal Reserve to further raise interest rates will decrease; On the contrary, if energy and service prices push up inflation again, even if employment is weak, policies may still remain restrictive. For the fourth quarter, the tug of war between interest rate expectations, long-term US bond yields, and energy prices will become important variables affecting the valuation of the US dollar, stocks, and cryptocurrency assets.