Quick Review of the US Stock Market Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq broke new highs in early October. The stock price intensity and breadth of CNN are both significantly declining The entire market is still supported by a small number of strong stocks. It goes without saying that this dominant sector is chip semiconductors. From the perspective of individual stocks, whether it is Marvel, INTC, or AI pillar NVDA, they have all risen. The bloodsucking of AI and the weakness of other sectors occur simultaneously. Are you familiar with the cryptocurrency community? It's the American stock version of the Big Cake Vampire Shanzhai. Silly guy likes to start with valuation Remember, apart from valuation, all other indicators are virtual. Only valuation can bring about ambiguity and correctness. However, valuation is difficult, so Shage simplified and replaced it with Forward PE. From the perspective of the past year, the valuation of semiconductors is still at a low level. From the perspective of the past three years, semiconductor valuations have been at a moderately low level. This judgment is very important, which means as long as there are no major mistakes in the selection process, You basically won't lose a lot. From a short-term perspective, the current position is indeed not as good as the end of July and September. But it doesn't matter, for individual stocks, it's almost enough to buy. Next, let's talk about the external factors that affect the US stock market: 1. Federal Reserve interest rate hike: The pressure of 10-year interest rates mathematically compresses valuations. Great, it's a godsend opportunity. These 10-year interest rates not only include the Fed's rate hikes, but also the real interest rates in the US economy, inflation expectations, the input inflation of war on oil prices, and the funding needs of AI itself. Quite complex and intertwined, influencing each other. Before, Silly Brother didn't understand the pressure on semiconductors caused by long-term debt exceeding 5% I don't feel much pressure now Because capex growth is in the tens of percent per year The Yoy of the industrial chain is at least tens of percent The growth of Eps can far offset the pressure of long-term bonds Of course, pessimists also have many reasons to pay attention to, which will not be elaborated here. 2. AI's terminal cash flow From the perspective of terminal revenue, Coding alone can hold on for at most another year, and it won't hold on any longer Fortunately, with recent signs, revenue in the fields of personal agents, end-to-end AI, and AI software has begun to rise In the long run, it is still necessary to be optimistic Short term evolution is nothing more than continuous or discontinuous Corresponding investment methods are different EPS will fluctuate sharply and rise Let's talk about it for now. We won't scan the technical indicators for now Sha Ge has a lot of things to do these days, such as buying an electric donkey, applying for registration, arranging parking spaces, arranging tables and chairs, and installing soundproof windows After everything is done, there should be an environment suitable for deep thinking