When everyone in the market is talking about QQQ and frantically buying QQQ, the risk is already near❗️ This is the most counterintuitive contrarian thinking in investing, and also a market rule that goes against consensus! My judgment is backed by data. Let’s break down the logic: First, QQQ itself is highly concentrated. QQQ tracks the Nasdaq 100. NVIDIA, Apple, and Microsoft together account for over 21%. When you buy QQQ, it looks like “diversified investing,” but in reality, you’re betting on these three companies. Second, market breadth has already collapsed. According to Morgan Stanley, 51% of the stocks in the Russell 3000 are already in a bear market. The median stock in the S&P 500 is down 16% from its 52-week high. Market breadth has fallen to its lowest level since the dot-com bubble burst. The indices are still at high levels, but half of the stocks are already in a bear market. “U.S. stock indices are in the clouds, while individual stocks are stuck in the mud.” Let that sink in! Third, retail investors are chasing highs, while institutions are retreating. The AAII survey shows bullish sentiment jumped from 34.6% to 40.3%. Meanwhile, money market funds saw a net inflow of $166.4 billion in a single week, the highest since April 2020. Retail investors are buying, while smart money is holding cash and waiting, like Buffett, Rogers, and Pansy Ho. Fourth, Duan Yongping is indeed reducing his U.S. stock holdings. In Q2, he reduced his NVIDIA holdings by 54.63%, Google by 46.88%, Microsoft by 25.78%, and completely exited TSMC. At the same time, he increased his positions in Pinduoduo, Moutai, repurchased Alibaba, and kept buying Pop Mart. A couple of days ago, a user on Xueqiu asked him: “Mr. Duan, I’m thinking about buying PDD or QQQ, but I’m not sure which one is better. If I hold for five years, which one should I buy? If I look at profits, PDD seems good, but if I look at annualized returns, it doesn’t seem worth it.” Duan Yongping didn’t answer directly. Instead, he asked: “Are you trying to buy companies that have performed well in the past?” That question is the answer. People who ask “Should I buy QQQ or PDD” are usually looking at the past. Investing is always about the future. Whether it’s stocks or crypto, you buy on expectations and sell on reality. Master this rule, and you’ve already surpassed many stock and crypto traders. When everyone is talking about QQQ, the question you should ask isn’t “Can I still buy it?” It’s “Who’s still buying?” ---- Mr. Xiaolong ----