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More >Today 2026-10-15
Chain reaction! PPI + retail both stronger than expected, market logic has shifted! Freshly released PPI numbers are off the charts! Year-over-year at 6.3%, beating expectations of 5.3% and the previous value of 5.4%. Month-over-month surged to 1.3%, nearly triple the forecast! Even more crucial, the retail data released simultaneously came in unexpectedly strong. This shows that U.S. consumer resilience is still intact, and purchasing power is propping up the economy. With this data out, the Fed now has more confidence to stay hawkish. This round of inflation rebound is being driven primarily by oil prices. The geopolitical risks in the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved, which means October inflation is very likely to be higher than September. Of course, we need to stay objective: While there’s no sign of a recession in the short term, labor and some consumer data are already showing signs of fatigue. Economic resilience doesn’t equal strength. CME’s previous rate hike probability peaked at 55%, and with this PPI release, it’s likely to push even higher, approaching 60%. The market now needs to reprice: Will there be another rate hike in December? Next up, gold, Bitcoin, U.S. bonds, and the dollar—all need to adjust expectations. Traders, don’t bet on the old rate-cut playbook! #XAU #BTC