Bitfinex predicts that BTC will remain volatile in the range of $81300 to $84400 before the Federal Reserve's FOMC rate decision on October 28th. On October 19th, the net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETF was 526.7 million US dollars, and the BTC price fluctuated between 81724 and 8347 US dollars, lower than the average cost of $84333 for ETF investors. Open interest contracts on mainstream exchange futures rebounded 4.2% to 64541 BTC. The nominal open interest size of options expiring on October 23rd is 1.23 billion US dollars, with a maximum pain point of approximately 82000 US dollars; The monthly option expiration scale on October 30th is $11.2 billion, with a maximum pain point of $76000. On chain data shows that the cost range of $82224 added approximately 145000 BTC, while the cost range of $80353 decreased by approximately 62000 BTC. The SOPR of short-term holders is about 1.003, and the profit supply accounts for about 70%.
AI interpretation: The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, as a core monetary policy indicator, directly determines global liquidity expectations and the pricing logic of risk assets. The current price game in the market surrounding this resolution reflects investors' extreme sensitivity to policy turning points. The volatile trend of Bitcoin before the resolution is essentially a safe haven and wait-and-see behavior of funds waiting for policy boots to land. This resolution will completely reshape the leverage level and risk appetite of the cryptocurrency market by changing the cost of US dollar financing.
