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More >Today 2026-10-24
The oil price has skyrocketed to 117 ❗ The real tipping point may be after the midterm elections on November 3rd. The current Brent crude oil has surged to $117 and touched it during trading, with a 90% increase this year. Why? Because the market is afraid of one thing: Trump and Israel may take action against Iran after the midterm elections. This is not a wild guess. The Israeli military had originally planned to take action on October 10th, but it was personally halted by Trump for one reason: they did not want to ignite the Middle East powder keg before the midterm elections. The underlying meaning of this sentence is: not taking action before the election does not mean not taking action after the election. Moreover, the probability of Trump losing the midterm elections is now frighteningly high. Prediction market data from Polymarket: The probability of the Democratic Party controlling the House of Representatives is 92%, and the probability of fully controlling both houses of Congress is 65%. Trump's own approval rating fell to 31%, the lowest point in his two terms in office. What does losing Congress mean? Trump will become a 'lame president'. The Congress controlled by the Democratic Party can investigate him, restrain his agenda, and even push for a third impeachment. The White House is already preparing for a 'big purge' internally, and CNN's original statement is that the 'knife has been unsheathed' inside the White House, fearing that Trump will 'go berserk'. What is the most likely thing a cornered Trump would do? Transfer the contradiction. The most direct way to transfer contradictions is to ignite them outside. On the Israeli side, Netanyahu has been pushing for the resumption of strikes. Once the midterm elections are over, the political constraint of 'no action before the election' disappears. What will happen to the oil price if it really hits? UBS's conflict escalation scenario sees over $120, while Eurasia analysts see $110-125. And now $117 is already standing on the upper edge of the danger zone. The first stop after starting the game is $125-130. This is not a wild guess. After the joint attack by the United States and Israel on Iran in February this year, the traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz directly halved, and Brent surged from pre war levels. The current global diesel inventory is extremely low, and the IEA director said that 'oil prices will not return to normal in 2027'. If the strait is blocked again, 130 or even higher is not a fantasy. What about Bitcoin? Oil prices surged to 125-130, and inflation expectations took off directly. The knife of the Federal Reserve's December interest rate hike will not only not be put down, but will also sharpen even sharper. The yield of US Treasury bonds is pushed upwards by inflation, and non interest bearing assets such as Bitcoin and US tech stocks continue to be squeezed. The 80K defense battle you see now may just be a prelude to the script of "oil price 130". Do you think Trump will vent his anger on Iran after losing the midterm elections? If the oil price really reaches 125-130, can your position withstand it? Chat in the comment section.
