[Wintermute: BTC Falls for Third Consecutive Week; FOMC and PCE to Determine Short-Term Direction] According to Wintermute's weekly market report released on October 27th, Bitcoin fell 2.43% last week, marking its third consecutive week of decline. It broke below $82,500 and retested $80,000, closing at approximately $80,500. ETH fell 3.40%, closing at approximately $2,330. The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $636 million on Thursday, the largest single-day outflow since June, while the Nasdaq fell 2.6% on the same day. On the macro front, Brent crude oil rose 5.66% to $116.72 after the Houthi attack on Saudi oil facilities, with oil prices replacing AI funding as the main market concern. Wintermute points out that as of October 18th, the market expects an approximately 86% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current interest rate this Wednesday, and anticipates a rate hike in December. The Fed's stance on December in its statement is a major risk. Technically, BTC needs to recover to $82,000 to $82,500. If $80,000 is breached, the next support level is $76,000, and a break below that could see a drop to just over $70,000. The firm is not currently bearish, but remains cautious until the FOMC meeting concludes and BTC recovers to $82,500. Key events include the FOMC meeting on October 28th, Q3 GDP and September PCE data on October 29th, and the monthly options expiration on October 30th.
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