The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 2:00 AM on October 29th. The market widely expects the target range for the federal funds rate to remain unchanged at 3.75%-4.00%. Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Credit Suisse, and BNY Mellon predict a pause in rate hikes in October and a 25 basis point increase in December. Moody's, Nomura, TD Securities, Huatai Securities, and Morgan Stanley expect rates to remain unchanged in October. Bank of America believes the Fed has reason to raise rates in October. The focus will be on the wording of the Fed's statement, the signals from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh at the press conference, and the impact of the meeting on the probability of a December rate hike.
AI Interpretation: The market consensus on maintaining the status quo in this interest rate decision is extremely high, reflecting that monetary policy has entered a period of observation. The expectation of a pause in rate hikes has anchored short-term interest rate trends, effectively alleviating market concerns about sudden policy changes. The divergence among institutions regarding the future path of interest rate hikes highlights the interplay between inflation and economic growth. The Fed's wording will be the core guide for market expectations, determining the pricing logic of funds regarding the year-end policy direction.
