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The World Bank states that global commodity prices are projected to rise by 23% in 2026, driven by rising energy prices, disruptions to cargo transport due to the Middle East war, issues with food shipments over the Black Sea, and demand for gold as a safe haven. The report also notes that commodity prices are expected to decline by 7% next year, but factors such as El Niño will keep food commodity prices high, increasing the risk of upward inflation and prompting monetary policy tightening.