[CITIC Securities Maintains Forecast for Fed Rate Cut in December] CITIC Securities' research report pointed out that the U.S. nonfarm payrolls increase and unemployment rate for September 2025 both exceeded expectations, but core indicators showed divergence. The unemployment rate rose to 4.44% in September, marking three consecutive months of increases, and the unemployment rate is considered a more significant reference metric. The Federal Reserve may find it difficult to justify that the unemployment rate in October and November did not rise to 4.5% or higher during its December policy meeting. Moreover, the September nonfarm payroll report is not the final employment data before the December meeting, and the weakening labor market may continue to be reflected in subsequent economic data. Considering that the majority of the 12 voting members in December are dovish, CITIC Securities maintains its forecast for a 25 basis point rate cut in December.