[Vitalik: Prediction Markets Are the 'Antidote' to Social Media, Countering Emotional and Extreme Opinions] On December 21, Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin posted on Farcaster, stating that prediction markets are an effective remedy for countering extreme opinions on emotional topics. Vitalik cited an example where Elon Musk claimed that a civil war in the UK was 'inevitable,' while the related market on Polymarket showed only a 3% probability. Vitalik believes that social media users often exaggerate, create panic, and act irresponsibly, whereas prediction markets involve real monetary stakes and incentives for 'truth-seeking.' Lying incurs economic penalties, making prediction markets better at reflecting true probabilities and providing a rational way to aggregate public opinion.
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