[Battle of CPI: December Inflation May See 'Corrective Rebound,' Extreme Risk Needs Vigilance] BlockBeats News, January 12 — The market widely expects that December U.S. CPI may experience a temporary rebound (data to be released this Tuesday at 21:30), primarily due to the statistical correction effect following the normalization of the Bureau of Labor Statistics survey. This does not necessarily indicate a structural deterioration of inflation. The release dates of November Nonfarm Payrolls and CPI were close. Nonfarm data showed that the U.S. labor market continues to cool, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6% (4.573% before rounding), marking a four-year high. However, due to the lingering effects of the government shutdown, the reliability of the data was questioned, failing to significantly strengthen market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut rates early. Interest rate futures indicate that the market broadly expects rates to remain unchanged at the January meeting, with the first rate cut likely occurring in March, April, or June. However, none of these scenarios have formed a consensus pricing exceeding 50%, reflecting a high degree of uncertainty in the path forward. The mainstream expectations for this CPI are: Overall CPI YoY: Slightly rising from 3.0% to 3.1% Core CPI YoY: Remaining at 3.0% Three scenario projections: 1. In line with expectations: Limited impact on risk assets, with the market focusing on reactions at key technical levels. 2. Significantly above expectations (especially Core CPI): Concerns over inflation stickiness intensify, potentially suppressing risk appetite in the short term. 3. Unexpected sharp decline (low probability): May resonate with weakening employment, reinforcing easing expectations and benefiting risk assets. December CPI may act as a short-term market volatility amplifier, requiring close attention to the impact of 'extreme readings' on rate expectations and asset pricing.