Micron was once as painful as aviation stocks Silly brother saw that memory factories have gone crazy recently, and the community is discussing it. Silly brother is very averse to joining in the fun of investment. Write something on self media, it's not enough to join in the fun Let's talk about Micron. Micron positioning: Everyone knows that Micron has a dual identity as the "airline of the semiconductor industry+the three giants of HBM in the AI era" In fact, the financial structure of a memory factory is very similar to that of an airline, making it the least suitable type of company for investment. We can also say: Micron has a dual identity as the "airline of the semiconductor industry+the three giants of HBM in the AI era" Like the aviation industry: capital intensive, cyclical, priced by commodities, with historical return on investment (ROIC) consistently lower than WACC, various constraints are unbearable But also due to HBM's short-term "franchise" premium in the AI era. After discussing the positioning, let's briefly analyze it: Analysis: 1. Essentially, it is still a high cycle semiconductor stock - historically a complete cycle of 5-7 years. Instead of what the community says, get rid of the cycle. 2. The proportion of HBM is actually very low. Dram (including HBM) only accounts for 20%. 3. In the past year, the annualized growth rate has been 200-300%, which is explosive growth. Q3 FY26 gross profit margin guidance reaches a historic high of 81%. 4. Technologically inferior to Samsung and Hynix, but there are also highlights: for example, Micron has a leading advantage in 1 γ (1-gmmaa) DRAM nodes, with some indicators surpassing SK Hynix 5. US domestic supply chain - US customers (NVIDIA/AMD/Microsoft) prefer US suppliers under geopolitical pressure 6. Every NVIDIA Blackwell GPU must be equipped with HBM, and the demand is growing rapidly. HBM has sold out and locked in 2026 prices for the whole year of FY26. 7. The market uses NVIDIA/TSMC's franchise valuation method to value Micron (Forward P/E 7x seems cheap but is actually a typical trap at the top of the cycle). 8. The correct benchmark is SK Hynix (this pattern has been validated): SK Hynix has also risen by a similar amount but acknowledges itself as a cyclical stock - unlike Micron retail investors who consider it a "long-term growth stock" 9. Changjiang Storage/Storage in China is eating away at the NAND and low-end DRAM markets through government subsidies and domestic substitution. Long term is a problem. 10. CAPEX reaches 78% of OCF. This is not for other businesses, but due to the heavy asset nature of the memory industry. I supplied ASML and went to buy DUV and EUV lithography machines 11. The revenue indicator of finance is the superposition of signals at the top of the cycle. Forward P/E 7.13x may seem extremely cheap, but estimated using FY27 EPS - assuming NVIDIA CAPEX continues to grow by 50%. In history, the Forward P/E at the top of Micron cycles has been extremely low (FY22 Forward P/E 5x → FY23 EPS turns negative → P/E is meaningless). 12. Compared to the 20-year PE average, the current premium has increased by 80%. Using historical PS calculations, the current premium has increased by four times. The market value is already several times that of Hynix. 13. Mobile and PC businesses are growing even faster than data centers and cloud storage. Really fierce. 14. The wafer area consumption of HBM is 20 times that of DRAM. This point is interesting, it's good news for AMSL. 15. Two years ago, financial reports were still a mess. It shines brightly today. The financial reports were all bought up by Lao Huang. 16. If Moore's Law reaches its peak, capex will also come to an end. The financial report also breathed a sigh of relief, as Micron's financial structure will be separated from the scope of aviation stocks. But in reality, Moore's Law may not be over yet. 17. In fact, Micron's correct approach is to wait until the bottom of the semiconductor cycle to build a position, as the winning rate is much higher. Let's wait. Silly brother himself is inclined towards this price, at least he has to bear the cost If you haven't established a warehouse, don't use FOMO anymore