April CPI data may show inflationary pressure due to technical correction

Stephen Innes predicted in his research report on May 12th that nominal CPI would increase by 0.6% month on month in April, and core CPI would rebound from 0.2% to 0.4%. The market forecast range is 0.4% to 0.8%, with increased uncertainty due to fluctuations in the energy market and service inflation. The report points out that the strengthening of core inflation is mainly due to the technical revision of the data from October last year by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. After excluding rent adjustments, the core CPI may only be 0.24%. Housing inflation is expected to rebound due to sampling adjustments, with equal rent and primary rent increasing by 0.5% and 0.44% respectively. Airline ticket prices are expected to increase by 3% month on month, second-hand car prices will decrease by 0.4%, and car insurance rates will increase by 0.4%. Medical insurance will decrease by 1.5% per month in the next six months due to updated statistical methods. AI interpretation: The month on month growth of CPI data exceeded market expectations, indicating an intensification of inflationary pressure. The rebound of core CPI indicates that despite technical corrections, inflation is still on an upward trend. The price increases in the housing and service sectors further confirm the stickiness of inflation, and the market's expectations for future monetary policy will be affected as a result. Overall, this data will strengthen market expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates.