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The sense of fragmentation in the global market continues to fill up. The S&P has hit a new closing high for the 17th time in 500 years, and risk appetite in the US stock market remains strong; However, Bitcoin went against the trend and fell below $79000, hitting a low of $78971. Currently, it is testing the 200 day moving average (MA200), which is considered the "lifeline of bulls" by the market. On chain data shows that BTC's unrealized profit margin has risen to 17.7%, reaching a new high in nearly 11 months. High floating profit means a large accumulation of profitable chips. Once market sentiment weakens, it is easy to trigger a concentrated take profit and "kill profit" market trend. Meanwhile, BTC's failure to strengthen in sync with the US stock market also indicates that the current cryptocurrency market is in a stage of deleveraging and liquidity repricing. At the strategic level, it is important to focus on observing the performance of MA200 support in the short term: if it quickly recovers, there are still technical opportunities for a pullback in the market; If it effectively falls below, we need to be vigilant about the further expansion of leverage trampling. Currently, it is more suitable to control positions, reduce leverage, and retain liquidity while waiting for the market to complete risk release. Part of the funds can be allocated to the three major platforms (OKX/Binance/Bitget) to focus on low-risk wealth management or relatively strong assets such as the US stock index for defensive purposes. Risk Warning: The views, conclusions, and recommendations presented in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. The market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious.
