CICC: The possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates within the year is low

According to a research report by CICC, the US inflation data is higher than expected, the job market is stabilizing, and the risk of rising energy prices remains. It is expected that PCE inflation will exceed 3.5% and core PCE will exceed 3% for the whole year, both exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target. The Federal Reserve's policy may be more cautious, and the possibility of interest rate cuts within the year is relatively low. The new chairman, Walsh, needs to convey a signal of anti inflation, and the probability of marginal tightening of US dollar liquidity is increasing.