Live broadcast of Three Kingdoms Academy: Putin's visit to China, can BTC hold the 75000 mark?

Click on the link to enter the meeting: https://meeting.tencent.com/p/6839100013 1、 Key market data and trend characteristics 1. Price performance 【BTC】 The opening price in the morning session was 77457, with a high of $77800 and a rapid decline, and a low of 76051. As of 10am, it was trading near 77136, with a 24-hour decline of 0.42%. Key point: After falling below the technical support level of 77800, a chain selling pressure is triggered, and the range of 76000-76800 is considered a short-term structural support level. 【ETH】 The morning quote was 2105, with a intraday fluctuation of 3.13% (highest at 2157, lowest at 2090), and a 24-hour decline of 1.22%. Key Node: 2000 is a weekly level psychological barrier, and if it is breached, it may accelerate the downward trend. 2. Market sentiment and capital movements Size of liquidation: In the past 24 hours, 108493 people across the network have liquidated their positions, with a total amount of 657 million yuan. Among them, nearly 500 million yuan of long positions were liquidated within 15 minutes, indicating centralized liquidation of leveraged positions. ETF fund outflow: The US spot Bitcoin ETF has experienced net outflows for several consecutive days, with a single week outflow of over $1 billion in May, the largest since the end of January. Institutional behavior differentiation: Strategy Inc. increased its position in Bitcoin against the trend (buying $2.01 billion in a single week), but it was difficult to offset the overall market selling pressure. 2、 Analysis of Core Influencing Factors 1. Geopolitical risks dominate market sentiment The escalation of tensions between the United States and Iran: On May 17th, Trump stated that "Iran's time is tight", and the market is concerned that military conflict will boost risk aversion, putting pressure on risk assets. Despite pre-market reports on the 19th that the US and Iran have restarted negotiations through Pakistan, the market remains cautious. Oil price linkage effect: Brent crude oil once broke through $112 per barrel, and the rise in energy costs intensified inflation expectations, strengthening the Federal Reserve's high interest rate stance, and high-risk assets were sold off. 2. Technological breakthrough triggers a chain reaction Bitcoin: After falling below the key support of 77800, technical indicators show increased downward pressure. The bearish momentum of MACD has expanded, and 76000 has become the focus of long short games. If effectively held, it may trigger a rebound. Ethereum: The price continues to run below the 20 day moving average, and the outflow of spot ETF funds combined with the negative correlation between ETH and oil prices has reached a historical high, indicating significant short-term pressure. 3、 Subsequent key observation points 1. Key signals for short-term trends Bitcoin: Pay special attention to the defense of the 76000 support level. If the closing price remains above $77800, it may alleviate selling pressure; If it effectively falls below 76000, or dips into the $74000-75000 range. Ethereum: 2000 is the weekly level long short watershed, if held or expected to rebound based on the June upgrade; If it falls, it may test the 1950 support. 2. Macro and event driven Geopolitical progress: The outcome of the US Iran negotiations will directly affect market risk appetite, if the situation eases or sentiment quickly recovers. Federal Reserve policy expectation: The statements of new Chairman Kevin Walsh and changes in US bond yields (the 10-year yield has risen to 4.595%) will continue to affect liquidity expectations. 4、 Risk Warning Extremely high leverage risk: The current market volatility (BVIV index) has risen to 42%, avoiding high leverage operations to prevent passive liquidation. Short term sentiment driven: This round of decline is caused by the resonance of three factors: geopolitical conflict, liquidity tightening, and technical breakthrough. It is not a trend reversal and needs to wait for clear macro signals before making a decision. Key time window: If the US Iran negotiations make a breakthrough within May 19th, the market may quickly recover; On the contrary, if there is no progress, downward pressure may continue until the weekend. What will the market do next? Professor Pang Tong, who has ten years of theoretical and practical trading experience in the cryptocurrency industry, will provide a detailed breakdown for everyone. Welcome to the live broadcast room to check in! Join the Three Kingdoms College Exchange Group to receive more services: 1. Real time troubleshooting (online one-on-one question answering and sorting) 2. Professional technical analysis and theoretical learning 3. Construction and improvement of trading system 4. Live streaming courses every day, contract termination, real-time order making, to help you successfully land! Official QQ group: 579358784 Tencent Meeting ID: 6839100013 Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is intended to assist investors in understanding information related to the capital market. It does not constitute any investment advice and does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin. The market is risky and investments should be made with caution.