CME data: Expectations of interest rate cuts within the year disappear, probability of interest rate hikes increases

According to CME Federal Reserve observation data, the expectation of interest rate cuts within the year has basically disappeared, and the probability of a 75 basis point interest rate hike is 1%. By the end of 2026, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged throughout the year is 51.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 0.5%, and the probabilities of a cumulative 25 basis point and 50 basis point rate hike are 37.3% and 9.3%, respectively. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at its June meeting is 1.1%.