Bitcoin's weekly chart is testing the 200-week moving average for the second time. The MACD is turning downward again below the zero line. If the 200-week line is decisively broken, a deep bear market might be confirmed. Macro trends dictate liquidity, and liquidity drives technical patterns. While technical analysis lags behind macro trends and struggles to predict turning points in advance, when the macro cycle is unclear, technicals become the only actionable trading benchmark for retail investors. In large cycles, technical signals are highly reliable. The head-and-shoulders pattern identified at the beginning of the year remains intact, and the downtrend has long been established. But human nature is what it is—most people don't want to believe it. Recognizing trends is easy; sticking to the rules is hard. Even I can't escape the dilemma of knowing but struggling to act. Bitcoin