After the ceasefire between the US and Iran, BTC has stabilized at 65000 yuan. What is the market betting on before the Federal Reserve's decision?

BTC has once again risen to $65000, but what is truly driving the market is not just a price increase. In the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market has received three heavyweight news simultaneously: the United States and Iran have reached a ceasefire agreement and are pushing for the resumption of passage in the Strait of Hormuz; The countdown to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision has begun; SpaceX has disclosed for the first time in its IPO filing that it holds 18712 BTC. From market reactions, it appears that funds are repricing risk assets. After the easing of geopolitical risks, international crude oil prices quickly fell back, and market concerns about energy shocks and a resurgence of inflation have cooled down. BTC once touched 66992 USDT and returned to above 65000 USD, indicating a significant recovery in risk appetite. But this round of price increase is not without cost. In the past 24 hours, the total amount of liquidated positions on the internet reached 1.32 billion US dollars, of which 819 million US dollars were liquidated by long positions, accounting for over 60%. The upward trend is accompanied by intense turnover and capital games, and market sentiment remains very fragile. At the same time, the long-term logic of institutional funding has not changed. SpaceX disclosed holding 18712 BTC; The total holdings of Strategy have reached 847000 BTC; BlackRock BITA Yield ETF is about to go public; Coinbase has received approval for its perpetual contract business in the United States. The institutional side is still continuously expanding the allocation and compliance entry points for encrypted assets. Structurally, the biggest variable in the market has shifted from geopolitics to the Federal Reserve. The interest rate decision in the early morning of tomorrow and Powell's speech will determine whether this rebound is a repair market after risk release or the starting point of a new trend market. In the short term, 65500-66000 USDT remains an important long short watershed for BTC. If we can continue to stabilize the region, the market is expected to further test the range of 67500-68000; If the Federal Reserve releases a hawkish signal beyond expectations, it needs to be vigilant about the re amplification of high-level fluctuations. The current market is more like a risk appetite repair stage driven by the resonance between institutional layout and macro events, and the key answer for the next 48 hours will be provided by the Federal Reserve. Risk Warning: The views, conclusions, and recommendations presented in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. The market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious.