After the Federal Reserve's decision, market expectations for interest rate hikes have increased, and the probability of rate hikes before the end of the year has changed

According to CME's "Federal Reserve Watch", the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until July is 64.0% (pre decision: 91.0%), the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 35.1% (pre decision: 8.9%), and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 1% (pre decision: 0%); The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until December is 14.2% (pre decision 38.2%), the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 36.4% (pre decision 43.0%), the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 33.8% (pre decision 16.2%), the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point rate hike is 13.5% (pre decision 2.4%), and the probability of a cumulative 100 basis point rate hike is 2.1% (pre decision 0.1%). AI interpretation: After the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, there has been a drastic restructuring of market pricing, and expectations for interest rate hikes have significantly increased. Investors have significantly lowered the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged and instead bet on a more aggressive tightening path. This shift directly reflects the market's reassessment of the tightening cycle of monetary policy, strengthening expectations of a longer duration of high interest rate environment. The rapid switching of fund flows indicates that the market is digesting more severe liquidity pressure, which directly suppresses risky assets.