BTC needs to wait for AI foam to burst before rising? Goldman Sachs says the world is transitioning from a "modern cycle" to a "postmodern cycle". The era of low inflation, low interest rates, and winning by buying indices is over. High inflation, high real interest rates, and valuation multiples cannot expand, and money only flows to assets with real profits or rigid supply. AI is the absolute protagonist of this cycle. Since the commercialization of ChatGPT, the US M2 has increased by approximately 1.5 trillion yuan, while AI and related companies have issued approximately 1.5 trillion yuan in debt during the same period. AI has absorbed all the excess liquidity. The five major technology giants' combined capex will approach $750 billion in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 67%, which is equivalent to more investment in the US energy industry throughout the year. BTC's defeat to AI is not due to narrative failure, but because it cannot compete for liquidity. Capex cannot grow at this rate forever. In 2027, the second derivative begins to slow down, and when the growth rate slows down, no one is willing to pay SpaceX 100 times the market to sales ratio. Path: AI capex growth slows down → valuation multiple compression → AI related credit event triggering → money printing assistance. But the first wave of printed money probably saved the AI company itself first, just like how it saved the bank in 2008. The opportunity for BTC is in the second wave, and only after the market sees clearly that "printing money cannot save the AI narrative", will funds look for the next trading partner. This time lag may be longer than imagined. AI is not disappearing, it is no longer soaring. Printing money in the postmodern cycle is not a general inflation, but a picky eating behavior. Money flows towards things that cannot be printed, such as gold, energy, and supply of rigid assets. BTC has a chance to sit at this table, provided that it completes the identity transition from tech beta to hard asset. This switch doesn't rely on shouting, it needs to be made through a crisis. Gold was only a commodity before 2008 and was classified as a safe haven asset only after the financial crisis. BTC needs a scenario where fiat currencies are depreciating, AI stocks are collapsing, and BTC is still present. Gold has not completely detached from interest rate pricing in the short term, and on the day of the implementation of the Walsh hawks, it still fell. Western ETF funds are still trading in real interest rate expectations. But there is a layer of structural buying at the bottom: global central banks have continuously increased their holdings, with China, Poland, and India all buying, and the amount of purchases since 2022 has reached a historical record. These buyers are not looking at the federal funds rate, they are looking at whether US dollar assets are safe or not. So every time gold is hit by FOMC, the bottom is higher than last time. Still jumping between interest rate pricing and hard asset pricing, but the focus is shifting towards hard assets. BTC is currently being squeezed unilaterally by interest rates and liquidity, and structural buying is not strong enough. Two signals: AI capex second derivative confirms deceleration; An AI credit event triggers liquidity release. BTC continued to be squeezed before. But the deeper the postmodern cycle, the stronger the long-term argument for BTC, and the essence of this cycle is the continuous loss of monetary credit. BTC needs to wait for AI foam to burst before rising.