Bank of America Securities predicts non farm payroll data for June, affecting expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026

Bank of America Securities predicts that if the June US non farm payroll data is stronger than expected, the market's expectations for the number of Fed rate hikes in 2026 will change. Bank of America Securities expects non farm payroll employment to increase by 110000 in June, citing moderate initial jobless claims and strong ADP private sector employment data. However, it points out that the surge in leisure and hotel industry employment in May may be affected by the World Cup or Memorial Day, and if affected by the latter, June data may fall back.