CME Federal Reserve Observation: The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 70.1%

According to CME Federal Reserve observations, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 70.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 29.9%; The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until September is 37.2%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 48.8%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 14.1%. AI interpretation: The market's dominant pricing for the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates unchanged in the short term reflects the stability of the current monetary policy path. The differentiation of interest rate expectations reveals the market's game of equilibrium between inflation and economic growth, and this pricing structure directly limits the expected space for policy shifts in the short term. Investors are adjusting their asset allocation through probability distribution to cope with the continued liquidity pressure brought by the high interest rate environment. This data confirms the high consensus in the market that the Federal Reserve will maintain a tightening stance, and reinforces the policy narrative that interest rates will remain high for an extended period of time.