According to the expected value formula The following are actually opportunities for positive EV But pay attention to the betting ratio There is a 1% chance that A will have a 1000 fold chance Only positions with less than 1% can be configured B has a 10% chance of winning 100 times the company You can slightly increase your storage space C has a 25% chance of winning 50 times the company It's already a rarity It is necessary to improve the configuration D has a 50% chance of getting 20 times the chance It's already picking up money We need to work hard with heavy inventory E has a 90% chance of getting 11 times the chance Gambling wealth There is a 95% chance that f will receive a 10% profit The favorite configuration for both experts and ordinary retail investors If a company is lucky in its development process Usually goes through all abcdef rounds A may be a seed wheel B may be before going public C has just been listed D is listed but the stock price has not yet taken off E means that the company has completely gained a monopoly position F is a company that has fully matured and the market is almost saturated I have invested in many primary markets that are in the state of A Crcl belongs to the state from b to c When I first bought a Tesla in 2017, it was in a C state By 2019, TSLA had entered a state of d Many people bought at this time The opportunities for e are relatively limited, such as BTC and TSLA for 312 We have entered 2020, but in the short term, we will buy 80% for you F is actually the main configuration, such as Maotai, Tencent, and QQ Buffett is indeed too stable He almost only buys e and f No matter how high your EV is Buffett will put winning rate first That is to say, it is often said that there is no loss of money Looking at Buffett's historical investment portfolio Buffett has an absolute obsession with winning rates The requirement for odds is not very high He has all invested in 50% of the profit potential Heavy position purchase with concentrated holdings He bought stocks in his early years and joined the board of directors Including buying cola, they are classic cases Overall, investment is the same as Texas Even leading the team to draw flowers is unstable Hua Shun's double draw may also result in a loss Because it's possible to miss anything But you don't bet on Hua Shun's double draw at all Only rookies and top experts can directly play the fall card Many people's evaluations of me are objective I bought CRCL because of the style of venture capital When I bought TSLA, it was the same I am good at making money for discovery and growth It may be related to early entrepreneurial experience Started a business and discovered a track that is about to take off It's not about configuration. If you bow down and enter the game, it will definitely be all in Sometimes entrepreneurship even requires unlimited joint and several liability So I found similar opportunities I will participate with 25% net worth Actually, it is highly consistent with my previous path For myself I want to invest in a company I am not sensitive to the stage this company is in As long as I can understand and afford it, I happen to have money on hand I will also invest tens of thousands of yuan in the seed round Before going public, I also participated in the allocation of tens of millions and billions of dollars I will also buy it after it goes public I always use the positive ev algorithm Measuring whether this value is worth participating in If you want to make steady money with ultra-low drawdown We can only learn from Buffett During the period of only playing e and f, there are opportunities for this type of hand I hope one day I can do it like Buffett Only buy investment opportunities for E and F Minimize all risk exposures I actually have a more radical style now Ability between novice and expert I still have a lot of room for improvement Don't overestimate me too much