1/ The most important ability in investment is not to predict the future. But rather accepting one thing: You can never be 100% sure. Many people lose money not because they don't work hard, nor because they watch less. But always wanting to find a 'definite answer'. Is this stock bound to rise? Is BTC really the bottom? Will the US stock market collapse? Can AI continue? But the cruelest part of the market is here: It never gives a standard answer. 2/ A truly mature investor is not better at fortune telling than others. But they are more likely to think with probability. What is probabilistic thinking? You don't pursue being right every time. You only pursue standing on the side with a higher winning rate in the long run. If there is an opportunity with a winning rate of 60% and odds of 2:1, then it is worth studying carefully. Because you don't need to win every time. As long as this positive choice is repeatedly made over a long period of time, the result will gradually widen the gap. Investment is not an exam. It's more like a game that keeps repeating itself. 3/ The biggest problem for many people is that they place too much emphasis on short-term gains and losses. I want an immediate increase when I buy it. If it falls, doubt yourself. I feel like I bought the wrong thing when the price went up too little. Seeing others making huge profits, I started to change direction again. As a result, every fluctuation disrupts one's own system. But the market is inherently random in the short term. One wrong judgment does not mean the method is wrong. Just because you bet right once doesn't mean you really understand. What really matters is: Does your system have positive expectations in the long term. 4/ That's also why I've always believed that the most important thing for ordinary people to build in the US stock market and BTC is not predictive ability, but a probability framework. For example, investing in Nasdaq, S&P BTC。 You cannot guarantee that you will make money every month after purchasing. Even many times, after buying, it falls. But if you believe in long-term innovation in American technology, believe in the global liquidity cycle, and believe in the long-term logic of BTC as a scarce asset, then what you need to do is not to guess the bottom every day. But rather, using positions, time, and cash flow to increase long-term winning rates. To put it bluntly: In the short term, it depends on luck. Long term observation of the system. 5/ There are several key points to probabilistic thinking. Firstly, look at the winning rate. Is the probability of long-term success in this direction high? Secondly, look at the odds. If the judgment is correct, is the profit margin enough to cover the risk? Thirdly, control risks. Don't bet on not making mistakes just because an opportunity looks good. Fourth, extend the time. Many advantages only become apparent over a sufficiently long period of time. This is also the most inhumane aspect of compound interest. It was slow in the early stages and fierce in the later stages. But most people die in the early stages. 6/ The most common thing that ordinary people should avoid is the illusion of certainty. Afraid of making mistakes, so I dare not buy. Afraid of falling, so frequently cutting meat. Afraid of stepping into the air, so chasing high. Afraid of waiting, so move around. These actions seem to be controlling risks. In fact, it is pushing oneself from the high probability side to the low probability side. Living long in the market is more important than earning quickly. Because as long as you are still at the table, opportunities will keep appearing. 7/ So investing is not about who is smarter than anyone else. But who can better adhere to correct probability thinking in the long run. You may not be able to predict the future. But you can increase your winning rate. You can control the losses. You can diversify the risk. You can conduct regular reviews. You can adjust when the market changes, instead of moving around emotionally. Investment is not always the right thing to pursue. But in an uncertain world, repeatedly doing the most likely correct thing. Time will ultimately reward such people.