Has Bitcoin's rebound peaked? Is it time to go short? Let me break down the logic first, then I'll give you the answer. 1) Yesterday, a long lower shadow bullish candlestick above $61,500 with high trading volume caused a rapid rebound, showing strong buying power. Bulls are clearly in control of the market and trend direction. 2) Currently, both bullish and bearish momentum are relatively weak, but overall, bearish momentum is much weaker, with bulls holding the advantage. 3) The recent 4-hour candlestick with a short upper shadow indicates weak bearish pressure. The price is only experiencing minor fluctuations, with no clear bearish signals to reverse the short-term upward rebound trend. 4) The sell orders from bears on the order book aren't significant, and the amounts are similar to the buy orders from bulls. There's no bearish signal here. 5) Yesterday, ETF institutions saw a net inflow of $265 million, marking two consecutive days of inflows. This shows institutional support for the bulls, backing the continuation of this upward rebound. 6) The probability of reaching the final target price of $68,000 is still relatively high. However, it won't be a straight-line rebound; instead, it will be a gradual upward movement with fluctuations. The projected path is already outlined in Chart 1. So, while ultra-short-term shorts are possible, shorting in the short term is risky, with a low risk-reward ratio and the potential to fuel the upward rebound. For now, hold off and wait until the price approaches $68,000 before considering going short. July 14: U.S. June CPI data - If lower than expected → rate cut expectations rise → bullish - If higher than expected → bearish July 14: Walsh's semi-annual monetary policy hearing - If hawkish tone emphasized → bearish - If tone is dovish → bullish July 17: CLARITY Act hearing - If progress is smooth → bullish - If stalled → bearish #Bitcoin #Crypto #Trading #BTC $BTC $ETH