Today we are still looking for a rebound, and we will continue to go long in the direction, but not pursue above 64000 Macroeconomics has not fully warmed up, and the 10-year US Treasury bond is still above 4.5%, which puts pressure on risky assets However, the US dollar index has fallen to around 100.77, and oil prices have also fallen from their highs. The market's panic over the US Iran situation has not yet intensified, and it is a breathing space for BTC But the risks between the US and Iran have not ended yet. Both sides are still discussing the issue of Hormuz, and there have been fluctuations in the ceasefire. Geopolitical news could bring a sharp drop at any time The ETF flowed out first in the past two days, with a outflow of $84.9 million on July 8th and $95.3 million on July 9th, but a net inflow of $90.4 million on July 10th This time, IBIT is basically buying back, with a daily inflow of 86.8 million US dollars, indicating that institutional funds have not been completely withdrawn, but are still being tested repeatedly We need to pay attention to the liquidity on the chain. In the past month, the total supply of USDT and USDC has decreased by about 13.9 billion US dollars, and the incremental funds are not sufficient. Therefore, if there is a rebound here, it cannot be directly regarded as a comprehensive rebound Tether's second quarter BTC reserves have not seen any new on chain transfers yet, and the market will be watching to see if it has slowed down its buying pace. This news is neutral and bearish Today, funds are also running towards high volatility memes. CASHCAT once surged to a market value of $200 million, and Hyperliquid even entered its contract, indicating a recovery in risk appetite. However, funds have not yet fully returned to BTC and mainstream currencies Technically speaking, BTC is currently around 64100, with a 1-hour RSI of 56, a 4-hour RSI of 60, and a daily RSI of 54. It is not considered overheated in the short term, and the 4-hour strength is still high The price has returned to the 1-hour and 4-hour EMA20 and EMA60 levels, and the 4-hour MACD continues to amplify above the zero axis. The rebound structure has not broken down The funding rate is only around 0.00013%, with a position of approximately 1.96 billion US dollars. There is no obvious crowding of long positions, and there is not much pressure to continue to move upwards at this position The first pressure above is 6.445 million, and after breaking through, it is 6.467 million. The strong pressure is still 65000 The first support below is between 64000 and 63700, with strong support at 63500 My conclusion is to go long If the retracement is between 64000 and 63700, you can continue to take long positions and place the stop loss below 63300 First, let's take a look at 644500 and 646700 yuan. With 6.5 yuan, everyone can stand firm, and this rebound has a chance to continue moving upwards