Latest interview with Tom Lee: S&P looks at 8000 by the end of the year, but there may be a bear market level pullback in the autumn Although Tom Lee's judgment on encrypted assets such as ETH is not much different from that of ordinary retail investors, and his repeated judgments are not accurate. But it has to be admitted that his annual forecast, logical framework, and basis on the main line of the US stock market have always been relatively solid, and it is worth carefully dissecting. In this interview with Prof. G Markets, he systematically explained the logic behind the S&P 8000 points and provided an early warning of the potential sharp correction in the autumn. I first sorted out his core points and finally added some of my own judgments. Review of the first half of the year: US stocks have experienced double-digit growth for the fourth consecutive year, but valuations have actually become cheaper After a continuous surge in the US stock market from 2023 to 2025, the S&P 500 rose nearly 9% in the first half of 2026, which seems to have been rising for a long time, but the data given by Tom Lee is quite counterintuitive. Valuation is actually getting cheaper. At the beginning of the year, the market's consensus expectation for S&P's earnings per share (EPS) for 2027 was $350, but it has now been significantly raised to $400. The P/E ratio of the S&P 500 based on forward earnings in 2027 has actually decreased from 19.4 times at the beginning of the year to 18.4 times currently. That is to say, profits have risen faster than stock prices, and valuations have been digested healthier than expected. Based on a 2027 EPS of $400 multiplied by a reasonable P/E ratio of 20, he raised the year-end target price of the S&P 500 from 7700 to 8000 points. There will be a "bear market level" V-shaped correction in autumn, and the four major variables should be vigilant However, Tom Lee also explicitly reminds that before reaching 8000 points, the market will face four major tests from June to December (especially before the autumn to midterm elections), which may trigger a more intense, bear market level pullback. However, he believes that this pullback will be V-shaped and the rebound will be fast and strong. The first variable is the policy uncertainty brought about by the new Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh. Walsh formed five working groups to reshape the operation mechanism of the Federal Reserve, including redefining the inflation gauge, canceling routine press conferences and forward guidance. This will make the market lose its policy dependence as it used to, and once the anchor point of the Federal Reserve's early appeasement of the market is missing, volatility will naturally increase. The second variable is the wave of unlocking IPO shares of SpaceX and other major giants. SpaceX is currently valued at $1.5 trillion, but currently has only $90 billion in outstanding shares (raising $18 billion through IPO). With a huge stock unlocking expected from the fall to the end of the year, the supply of chips that the market needs to digest will significantly increase. The third variable is the potential shortage of oil derivatives caused by the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran. Although the domestic gasoline supply in the United States is abundant, the shortage of industrial petroleum derivatives such as lubricants may drag down the global supply chain. The fourth variable is the high margin debt. At present, margin debt has surged by 55% year-on-year, the fifth highest growth rate in the past 70 years. This usually indicates that the purchasing power of leveraged retail investors and short-term traders is about to be exhausted. In history, this signal often accompanies a significant correction in the next 6 months. Semiconductors are breaking traditional cycles, and humanoid robots are the next super demand source In response to such queries as "circular procurement among AI enterprises and inflated profit quality of book investment income", Tom Lee's response is that although the price earnings ratio of technology stocks is indeed high, technology companies currently contribute nearly 60% to 70% of S&P's profit growth and 40% of its total profit, which is totally different from the fact that technology stocks had almost no real profit support in the Internet foam in 1999. He made an interesting judgment on the semiconductor aspect. At present, semiconductors account for 19% of the weight of the S&P 500, and he believes that semiconductors are breaking the traditional 50 year cyclical pattern and entering a new growth story. The core driving force is humanoid robots: the chip demand for a single humanoid robot is about 50 times that of an iPhone, and coupled with the demand for aerospace grade chips, the long-term market space for semiconductors (TAM) is being completely reshaped. He also mentioned that AI is filling a large amount of idle time in white-collar jobs, and in the coming years, industrial robots with refined hand flexibility will reshape residential buildings (such as carving residential details comparable to the Louvre level with stones) and the entire ecosystem of logistics giants such as Amazon. The sectors he is optimistic about and several key individual stocks At the sector level, he is more optimistic about small cap stocks, finance, industry, energy, as well as the Big Seven and software sectors (IGV). At the individual stock level, Microsoft and Meta were emphasized. Although the stock prices have fallen in the short term due to increased capital expenditures, these two companies have repeatedly proven their foresight and execution in strategic transformation throughout history. He is very optimistic about their position as the biggest beneficiaries of downstream AI applications. Amazon has also been specifically named, as a logistics giant and a company currently owning one million industrial robots, he believes that Amazon will be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the AI and robotics era. Tell me my own judgment I basically agree with Tom Lee's logical framework, especially the rhythm of "rising first, then falling back, and then rising again", which coincides with my own judgment during this period. My specific rhythm judgment is: the market will first surge to around 7800 in July and August; Entering the seasonal weak window before the midterm elections from September to October, there will be a pullback, and I believe the deepest one will be in the range of 7000 to 7200; By November or December, which is the fourth quarter, we will start charging again. Our year-end target is set at 8000 to 8200, which is basically consistent with Tom Lee's 8000 point target. In my personal judgment, the magnitude of this callback will not exceed 10%. Because we have already experienced a correction of around 10% in March this year, it is rare in history to have two consecutive deep corrections of the same magnitude within the same year. Therefore, I tend to lean towards the range of 5% to 10% this time, which will not be more severe than the one in March. The window that truly requires extra caution, in my opinion, is the third quarter (mid August to the end of September), during which uncertainty and volatility will significantly increase. In addition to the variables mentioned by Tom Lee, such as Federal Reserve policy uncertainty, IPO unlocking wave, oil supply chain risk, and margin debt, I would like to add one more: political uncertainty itself before the midterm elections. In the historical statistics of election years, market volatility tends to systematically increase in the months leading up to the election, and only after the uncertainty of the election results is eliminated can a restorative rebound be ushered in. This is actually two sides of the same logic as Tom Lee's accelerated sprint in the fourth quarter. I also agree with his judgment on the robot line. I have always believed that robots will be the next super mainline to be priced in advance by the market, following AI infrastructure and the space sector. The logic is similar to how SpaceX's expected IPO led to a reevaluation of the entire space industry chain. And this line will ultimately drive the demand for semiconductor chips in turn. Tom Lee's mention of "the demand for humanoid robot chips is 50 times that of iPhones" perfectly confirms my previous analysis of the robot industry chain. The most certain are the core component and chip suppliers that cannot be bypassed regardless of which complete machine factory wins in the end. When the market rebounds in October, focus on this sector, which may explode in Q4.