Tonight at 8:30 PM, the U.S. June CPI will be released. The market's median expectation for core CPI is a month-over-month increase of 0.2%. If core CPI hits 0.3% or higher, the market will further price in the risk of Fed rate hikes. At 10:00 PM, Fed Chair Warsh will deliver congressional testimony, followed by Waller's economic outlook speech at 12:30 AM the next day. The current macro backdrop is clearly unfavorable for risk assets: - Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are escalating again; - Brent crude oil briefly surged above $85; - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed to around 4.63%; - The Dollar Index is near its monthly high; - The probability of a 25BP rate hike by the end of July has risen to about 43%. This means today’s CPI isn’t just any ordinary data release—it’s being announced against the backdrop of an oil price shock and rising rate hike expectations. Additionally, on July 13, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw a net outflow of approximately $239.2 million, while ETH ETFs had a net outflow of about $15.4 million. Institutional funds are not providing strong support for now. $BTC $CL $XAU