The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 85.6%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 41.4%

According to CME Federal Reserve observations, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 85.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 14.4%; The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until September is 41.4%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 51.2%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 7.5%. AI interpretation: The current interest rate path expectation shows a high consensus in the market to hold short-term policies in place. The significant increase in the probability of a September interest rate hike reflects the market's repricing of inflation stickiness and policy tightening cycles. This expected shift directly weakens the logical support for rapid interest rate cuts within the year. The intention of the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates has been fully reflected in the financial market. Investors are rapidly adjusting their asset allocation to cope with a longer-term high interest rate environment.