Polymarket predicts that the probability of a ceasefire between the United States and Iran before July 31 will rise to 59%, with a daily increase of 19%

According to PPP Forecast Market Tool Monitoring, the probability of an effective ceasefire between the United States and Iran before July 31st on Polymarket has risen to 59%, with a daily increase of 19%. The settlement of this incident is based on the fact that the United States did not launch any specific military actions against Iranian territory within 14 days prior to the deadline. The settlement information is based on official information from the US and Iranian governments, military, and credible media reports.