Loracle's recent actions are becoming increasingly incomprehensible A giant whale that once made over $200 million by trading HYPE, shorted at over $40, took a loss and went long around $70, and now has opened a HYPE short position of approximately $27.54 million at an average price of $52.65 Did it really suddenly stop trading, or did we not understand this position from the beginning? We just tracked Loracle a few days ago At that time, it still held about 770000 spot HYPEs worth over $40 million, and only established 16620 HYPE short positions, which only covered about 2.15% of its spot positions So our judgment at that time was: Loracle is still a HYPE leader, only selling a small amount of spot goods and buying insurance for its core position with a small short order But just a few days later, this judgment was no longer valid As of around 9am on August 5th, in the on chain snapshot, the spot HYPE in Loracle's old address has basically returned to zero, and the perpetual empty orders of HYPE have increased to about 500000 The value of the empty position is about 27.54 million US dollars, which has increased by about 30 times compared to July 30th It is no longer a 'small position hedge', but has been clearly converted to a net short position in HYPE at the old address After elongating the timeline, this operation looks even more abnormal On April 21st, Loracle began to establish 5-fold leverage HYPE short positions at over $40 From the end of April to the end of May, HYPE continued to rise, but it continued to increase its short positions while selling some spot HYPE By around May 21st, the value of this short order had exceeded $100 million, but HYPE continued to hit new highs At the end of May to early June, Loracle finally began accepting losses and closing positions On June 3rd, it closed over $110 million of HYPE short positions, accumulating a loss of approximately $46.46 million, and then went long around $70 That is to say, it started short selling at around $40, struggled all the way to around $70 and recognized losses, and then spun long at high levels Afterwards, HYPE continued to hit new highs, but according to the community's review of the address, Loracle did not clearly realize profits during the upward trend At the end of July, HYPE fell back to over $50, and it began to close its perpetual long position again, and short again around $52.5 On the noon of July 30th, Loracle began to establish a new round of HYPE empty orders On the first day, there were approximately 16621 short positions opened, which were divided into 3338 sold transactions. Subsequently, on July 31st, there was an increase of approximately 52543 short positions, on August 1st, there was an increase of approximately 156415 short positions, on August 2nd, there was an increase of approximately 228088 short positions, and on August 3rd, there was a further increase of approximately 49081 short positions The entire process of building a warehouse was divided into approximately 19235 sales transactions, and a total of approximately 502747 HYPE short positions were established No buyback detected during the period From the perspective of trading behavior, this is not an accidental opening of positions, but a planned expansion of empty positions for several consecutive days At present, the average opening price of this HYPE empty order is about $52.65 The current price of HYPE is about 54.81 US dollars, which is already higher than its average opening price. Therefore, this short position is currently losing about 1.07 million US dollars The strong parity displayed by the single position is about $86.05, which is still far from the current price, so it cannot be said that Loracle is about to be strongly flattened But its risk does not only come from this HYPE empty order Loracle currently holds approximately 15335 ETH short positions worth around $28.57 million In addition, with open positions such as KAITO and XMR, the nominal value of the entire perpetual account's open position is approximately $56.96 million, and the long position is less than $100 Among them, the two short positions of HYPE and ETH account for about 98.5% of the total position That means it's not just bearish on HYPE It is almost betting with the entire account that the market will continue to decline The current value of this portfolio is approximately $17.33 million, with a nominal position of approximately $56.96 million and an overall leverage of approximately 3.29 times. Approximately $15.37 million of margin has been used, with a margin utilization rate of approximately 88.7%. The available balance is only about $535000, and the total floating loss of all open positions is approximately $1.11 million HYPE and ETH are two large short positions in the same direction. If the overall cryptocurrency market rises, both sides will be under pressure at the same time Of course, this doesn't mean it will explode immediately In the cross margin mode, the profit and loss of other positions, changes in account funds, and subsequent transfers will all affect the final risk boundary But the margin utilization rate of nearly 89% indicates that the room left for self adjustment is no longer broad Here's the question: Has Loracle really sold all of its over $40 million in spot HYPE? It must be made clear here It can be confirmed on the chain that all 2000 HYPE spot transactions recorded by Loracle address recently were sold, with a total of approximately 23572 HYPE sold and a transaction amount of approximately 1.286 million US dollars But most of the remaining spot goods did not directly hit the market On the morning of July 31st, Loracle transferred approximately 754628 HYPEs to another address at once This batch of HYPE was worth approximately 42.16 million US dollars at that time Therefore, it is not possible to write 'Loracle sold $42 million HYPE in the market' for the address spot to zero A more accurate description would be: It sold approximately $1.286 million in spot goods on the market, and then transferred the remaining HYPE worth approximately $42.16 million to another address, while establishing approximately $27.54 million in HYPE short positions at the old address This is also the biggest suspense of the whole matter If the receiving address is still controlled by Loracle and these 754600 HYPEs have not been sold yet, then it may still hold over $40 million in spot, just splitting the spot and empty orders into two addresses Based on the value at the time of transfer, a $27.54 million short order is still insufficient to fully cover this batch of spot goods In this case, it may seem like it has gone from a big long position to a big short position, but in reality, it may just have dismantled a set of cross address hedging But if this batch of HYPE continues to flow to exchanges, market making addresses, or is gradually sold, then the nature will be completely different That means Loricle really completed a directional flip: From a net surplus of approximately 756400 HYPE on July 30th, to selling current stock and holding a net short position of 502700 HYPE Some people are also beginning to doubt whether this series of operations is a deliberate psychological war displayed to the market The reason is also very direct: Would a trader who once made over $200 million through HYPE really short at over $40, take a loss at $70 and then go long, and then close their long position near $52 and go short again? But currently there is no evidence to prove that this is a manipulation or performance Just because big funds have made money in the past doesn't mean they won't make mistakes next time Moreover, once the position reaches tens of millions or even billions of dollars, it is difficult for it to instantly turn like an ordinary trader Every time you add or close a position, it will affect your transaction price and market sentiment Moreover, what we see is only a public address Cannot see if it holds another position in another address, centralized exchange, over-the-counter account, or fund portfolio Chain can tell us what it did, but it cannot directly tell us why it did it Now the market can focus on two numbers first The first one is $52.65 This is the average opening price of current HYPE empty orders for Loracle When HYPE falls below this level again, its short positions will gradually turn from floating losses to profits; If the price continues to remain above $54.8, its losses and margin pressure will continue to increase The second one is the 754600 HYPE that were transferred away Whether the old address continues to be short is already important, but where this batch of spot goods worth over $40 million ultimately goes will determine whether Loracle is hedging across addresses or has completely turned short A few days ago, our question was still: Is Loracle buying insurance for HYPE spot or preparing to go short again? The answer has now taken a step forward Its old address has clearly turned short, and the entire perpetual portfolio is almost entirely betting on a market downturn But whether Loracle as a whole is truly bearish still depends on whether the batch of spot goods that were transferred away is still in its hands On one hand, there are approximately $27.54 million HYPE empty orders, and on the other hand, there are 754600 HYPE orders whose destinations have not yet been fully confirmed Is this a big gamble that continues to increase after stepping on the wrong pace, or is it a large hedge that has been dismantled into different addresses? HYPE Hyperliquid Loracle