Prediction: 'US Invasion of Iran' Has Lost 40%, Smart Money Still Holds Nearly $7 Million in Crude Oil Multiple Orders

The Yes bet held by Polymarket trader 'xm39' that the United States will invade Iran before 2027 continues to be under pressure. Currently, the position has increased to 1.0992 million shares, with a total cost of $286200 and an average position price of 26.03 cents. The contract is currently priced at 15.5 cents, and its position value has decreased to $170400, with a floating loss of $115800, representing a loss of 40.47%. Compared to the tracking on August 3rd, XM39 has since increased its holdings by 161500 units and invested an additional $31500, resulting in a floating loss expansion of $53300; There have been no new predicted market transactions today. At the same time, XM39 established multiple crude oil warehouses again this morning. As of noon, it has purchased a total of 88000 WTI crude oil contracts CL through 873 transactions, with a transaction volume of 6.9127 million US dollars and a transaction price of 78.54 US dollars. As of press time, the address is held at 20 times full position, with a floating profit of $15700, a return rate of approximately 4.53%, and a liquidation price of $75.75. Almost at the same time as starting to buy crude oil, XM39 also shorted 24.31 units of XYZ100 at an average price of 29729.68 points, with a turnover of 722700 US dollars. It currently holds 80.28 empty XYZ100 positions with a value of $2.3976 million, an average price of 29654.27 points, a floating loss of $16900, and a liquidation price of 32984.70 points. The current nominal value of the two positions is a total of 9.3259 million US dollars, which is roughly offset by floating gains and losses, resulting in a net floating loss of 1258 US dollars. At 29388 points, there are 20 XYZ100 "only reduced position" buy orders with a nominal amount of $587800, planning to reduce existing short positions by approximately 24.9%. At present, it continues to bet on US military action against Iran on Polymarket, re long crude oil on Hyperliquid and short the Nasdaq mapping contract, with both ends pointing towards the macro direction of war escalation, rising oil prices, and pressure on risk assets. It is reported that the trader has 65 closed positions in Polymarket, none of which belong to the US Iran, Iran or Hormuz related markets; In crude oil trading, there are 4 wins and 1 loss in 5 rounds of multiple orders, with a win rate of 80%; The only round of short orders resulted in a profit of approximately $17200. Smart Money Address: 0x40f20b734d7d25ba0b6219e921382fa992a56A9e Join the smart money community on the chain and receive more whale warnings: https://www.aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=N6OVMor5g