VIX falls to year low, institutions warn of pullback risk in US stock market in autumn

The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) fell to 14.2, the lowest level since 2026. The S&P 500 index has risen by about 16% this year, with stock funds experiencing net inflows for 12 consecutive weeks. Jonathan Krinsky, Chief Market Technology Analyst at BTIG, pointed out that the market is in a historical downward window and recommends reducing risk exposure. Susquehanna pointed out that the implied volatility of the two month period has rebounded to 13.5. Axel Rudolph, Chief Technical Analyst at IG, emphasized that retail sales fell by 0.6% in July and investors may underestimate market fragility. Wall Street institutions consider mid August to mid October as a turbulent period, and the BTIG model shows an average pullback of at least 7% during this period in midterm election years.