Polymarket: The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in September drops to 49%, with a 10% drop in 24 hours

Polymarket data shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in September has dropped to 49%, a decrease of 10% in 24 hours. ADP employment in the United States increased by 38000 in August, the smallest increase since January. The market is focused on the August non farm payroll report released on September 4th. AI interpretation: ADP employment data fell significantly short of expectations, directly revealing that the US labor market is undergoing a significant cooling process. This weak performance has shattered the market's blind optimism about employment resilience, forcing investors to reassess the risk of economic recession. The cliff like decline in employment growth has weakened the confidence of the Federal Reserve in maintaining high interest rates, and the market's expectation of the urgency of interest rate cuts has significantly increased. This data sets a pessimistic tone for the upcoming non farm payroll report, intensifying the market's bet on a shift towards loose monetary policy.