The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 60.2%

According to CME's "Federal Reserve Watch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 39.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 60.2%; The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 28.3%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 54.3%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 17.3%. (Source: Federal Reserve) AI interpretation: The market's pricing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike path reflects a strong expectation for the continuation of tightening policies. The core of the current interest rate decision-making game lies in the balance between inflation stickiness and economic resilience. The high probability of interest rate hikes directly pushed up the yield level of US dollar assets. This pricing logic forces investors to reassess the suppressive effect of liquidity tightening on the capital market. The Federal Reserve's determination to maintain high interest rates is reshaping the pricing benchmark for global assets.