BTC: Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day? A week ago, the fear of greed index was still at 34 (fear), and yesterday it was 78, entering extreme greed. BTC rose more than 10% in a week, reaching 86000. Emotions switch so quickly. Before the holiday, I would like to remind you to be careful of the "Mid Autumn Festival calamity" and "National Day calamity". Flipping through history: On the eve of National Day in 2017, there was a wave of domestic exchange closures, and BTC fell by about 40% in eight days, reaching a low of $2972. Just three days after the Mid Autumn Festival in 2021, the central bank issued a notice stating that BTC had dropped from 45000 to 42000 within an hour. On the National Day of 2024, Iran launched a missile attack on Israel, causing BTC to drop from 66500 to 60000, with over 95% of positions being oversold. The 8-day holiday of Mid Autumn Festival and National Day in 2025 has just ended, and the news of the October 10th tariff has landed. BTC fell from 123000 to 102000 in three hours, and the entire network exploded by 19.1 billion US dollars, the largest single day liquidation in history, with 1.62 million people liquidated. And just a few days ago, BTC hit a historic high. I don't believe in any holiday curse, the trigger is different every time. But the long holiday will amplify the impact: Chinese speaking traders will have a holiday, the trading volume will become thinner, there will be less attention paid to the market, stop losses will be relaxed, and the cryptocurrency market will not be blown. Last year on October 10th, the price difference of BTC contracts instantly increased by thousands of times, and liquidity disappeared when it was most needed. Account calculation: Currently BTC 86000, 10000 points is 11.6%. With a leverage of 10 times, a drop of 8% -9% may lead to a liquidation, and a bearish candlestick of 10000 points will leave no trace. Last year's drop was 16.9%, and today it is about 14500 points. Extreme greed does not mean a drop tomorrow, but it means crowded positions and thinning of tolerance. Pre holiday advice: Reduce the position from more than 10 times to less than 5 times, or lock in some profits first Use position by position and stop loss to hang on the exchange Don't fill the warehouse for holidays If the spot price drops, we can wait for it to come back, but if the high leverage explodes, we really can't come back. Wishing everyone a happy Mid Autumn Festival, National Day, and family reunion, as well as a happy account Personal opinion, does not constitute investment advice Bitget buys US stocks: instant entry, silky trading