Many analyses compare the current high yield of long-term bonds to the 1990s, but ignore the differences between these two eras. The key is the difference: 1. In the 1990s, the yield on long-term bonds was indeed very high, but if we look further ahead, we will see that the yield on long-term bonds was even higher. That is, in the late 790s, the violent interest rate hike by Volcker caused the 10-year US bond yield to rise to 15% in the early 1980s, and over the next 30 years, the yield on long-term bonds was in a downward trend. So in the 1990s, long-term bond yields were at a high level, but the overall trend was declining, and macroeconomic pressure was gradually easing. Now the long-term bond yield is gradually rising from the bottom of 20 years, and it seems to have recently emerged from the oscillation range of the past two years; 2. Differences in Geopolitical Macroeconomics In the early 1990s, the collapse of the Soviet Union made the United States the number one superpower and the only superpower at that time; And then quickly won the Gulf War, with unparalleled military strength. In this situation, as the US stock market continues to strengthen, it is inevitable that the US Treasury will continue to decline. At present, it is not: Although the 25 year trade show was full of ups and downs, the United States also gained a lot of benefits. At the beginning of the 26th year, the US military quickly captured Maduro and solved the Venezuela issue, firmly grasping the backyard of South America. In fact, at the beginning of this year, the strength and position of the United States were further enhanced. But the Iran War broke all of this, with soaring oil prices becoming the main driving factor for inflation this year, and more importantly, demonstrating the decline of the US military's geopolitical dominance. Now Iran and its allies control the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Manda. The Middle East has begun to form its own epidemic prevention alliance. Trump also relies on Pakistan, Oman and China to mediate and mediate. In fact, this is the manifestation of the weakening of national strength. Naturally, many funds have less confidence in holding US treasury bond bonds. Similarities: 3. The biggest similarity between the 1990s and the 1920s is that they were both in the midst of a huge industrial revolution: The 1990s witnessed the Internet revolution The current 1920s is the AI revolution, and the AI revolution has a faster penetration and commercialization than the Internet revolution at that time. The strong fundamentals of the AI industry are also the core reason for the continued strength of the Nasdaq and S&P, as well as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P, and Russell 2000, against the backdrop of high long-term bond yields over the past month. I saw data these days that foreign funds have bought over $940 billion worth of US stocks in the past year and are continuing to sell off US bonds this year. The core is the embodiment of the above three points. What do you think about the back? This morning's tweet also mentioned that the higher the yield of long-term bonds, the stronger the suppression felt by the market. Before the macro situation eases, it is estimated that this divergence in the US stock market will continue, and even its breadth will continue to narrow. The higher the market's requirements for the fundamentals of individual stocks, the more they must not only grow but also exceed expectations (rather than growth that has already been expected) https://((x.com))/qinbafrank/status/2104410064656433306? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A At the beginning of the year, I talked about that the commercialization speed of AI will be faster than that of the Internet era, and the penetration rate will also increase rapidly https://((x.com))/qinbafrank/status/2052316328246247804? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A