QCP: The current Bitcoin rally is mainly driven by spot funds, but the current market structure still has vulnerabilities According to BlockBeats news, on October 2nd, QCP Capital released its latest market analysis stating that BTC has broken through the previously volatile range of $82500 to $85700 that lasted for a week. It once touched $86913 during trading, reaching a new high since September 23rd. Currently, it is trading around $85900, up 14.6% from the low of $74968 on September 15th. QCP pointed out that during this round of upward trend, the annualized funding rate for perpetual contracts was only 5.4%, indicating that the market was mainly driven by spot funds rather than leveraged trading. QCP believes that the recent rise of BTC deviates from traditional macro market signals. In September, the yield of 30-year US treasury bond rose to 5.62%, the 10-year yield once reached 5.29%, and gold recorded the worst month of the year. Although the rise in real interest rates usually puts pressure on gold and risky assets, BTC still rises. QCP believes that this round of market trend is more in line with the centralized fund trading driven by institutional capital inflows, regulatory catalysts, and technological improvements, rather than a simple currency depreciation trading logic. In terms of institutional funding and regulatory factors, the US Bitcoin spot ETF recorded net inflows of approximately $3.5 billion and $2.6 billion in August and September, respectively. QCP pointed out that the innovation exemption policy released by the US SEC on September 17 provides a new regulatory catalyst for the market, but due to the previous failure of the CLARITY bill to pass in the Senate, market structure legislation may be postponed until 2027, so current regulatory support comes more from the administrative level, and long-term policy certainty is still limited. In terms of the options market, the nominal amount of options trading yesterday was about 2.5 billion US dollars, involving a total of 54 block trades with a single nominal amount exceeding 5 million US dollars. Among them, one client sold call options with an exercise price of $90000 due on October 30th in batches, accumulating over 4000 contracts and a nominal amount of $346 million; Simultaneously actively purchase call options with the same exercise price expiring on November 27th. QCP believes that this operation reflects that some traders are rolling their positions from October to November, in order to layout the market fluctuations before and after the US mid-term elections, quarterly treasury bond refinancing and the Federal Reserve meeting in December. In terms of macroeconomics, the Federal Reserve will hold an interest rate meeting from October 27th to 28th. QCP stated that the market's expectation of keeping interest rates unchanged in October has increased after Federal Reserve official Williams stated that there is no urgent need to further adjust policies and the core PCE in August was lower than expected. However, the market still expects a probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December to be around 80%. The September non farm payroll report released tonight in the United States will be an important short-term test. The market expects the number of new non farm jobs to be between 84000 and 93000, the unemployment rate to remain at 4.1%, and the average hourly wage growth rate is expected to be 3.0% year-on-year. In terms of technology, the support level of $82500 has been tested three times in the past week, while $87400 is the location of the September high and a key resistance for BTC to further challenge $90000. The term structure of implied volatility in the options market shows a rising trend, with a 7-day implied volatility of 30.3 and a 90 day implied volatility of 37.1; The 30 day term risk reversal indicator is approximately -2.5 volatility points, indicating an increase in demand for short-term bearish protection. QCP believes that although BTC has shown resilience in the macro environment of rising real interest rates, the market is still mainly driven by changes in capital flows and positions, and cannot be considered as having eliminated macro risks. US employment data, treasury bond bond supply and intensive policy events in the coming weeks may still trigger market volatility. [Original link]