How have the prices of US stocks and Bitcoin gone with the Fed's previous interest rate hikes? You were moved and surprised to see the final pattern and conclusion ❗ ️ June 1999 (interest rate hike to 6.5%) S&P 500:+3 months+8.36%,+12 months+7.63% Bitcoin: Unborn June 2004 (interest rate hike to 5.25%) S&P 500:+3 months+6.81%,+12 months+4.85% Bitcoin: Unborn December 2015 (interest rate hike to 2.5%) S&P 500:+3 months+1.69%,+12 months+10.50% Bitcoin:+1 month -21%,+3 months -9%,+6 months+65% March 2022 (interest rate hike to 5.5%) S&P 500:+3 months -9.13%,+12 months -7.09% Bitcoin:+1 month -1.8%,+3 months -50.4%,+6 months -51.8% September 2026 (interest rate hike to 4.0%) To be observed The four patterns summarized from this set of data are: 1、 The US stock market is under short-term pressure, but is likely to recover in the medium term. Except for 2022, 12 months after the first interest rate hike, the S&P 500 all closed higher. In the initial stage of interest rate hikes, the decline is due to "valuation discount", while in the mid-term, the increase is due to "profit realization". 2、 Bitcoin's "day" and "one month later" are often reversed. Since 2022, BTC has fallen an average of 6.29% in the month following the interest rate hike. 'Day up' is emotion, 'month down' is liquidity. 3、 2015 and 2022 are two textbooks. In 2015, it first fell and then rose, and after six months, it increased by 65%; In 2022, there will be a sideways trend and a halving in three to six months. The difference lies not in whether to increase or not, but in what the interest rate hike exposes. 4、 The sharp decline is not in the 'Nth interest rate hike', but after 'liquidity has been drained'. The valuation foam was exposed in 2000, the subprime leverage was exposed in 2007, and the Luna/FTX chain mine was exposed in 2022. Raising interest rates itself doesn't kill people, pulling out leverage is killing people. Summary of Bitcoin's response to interest rate hikes: Bitcoin has only experienced two complete interest rate hikes, and the sample is too small to be considered a 'pattern'. But the lessons of the two rounds are clear: In the 2015 round, after one month of interest rate hikes, it fell by 21%, but six months later it rose by 65%, drowning out expectations of a halving of interest rate hikes. In the 2022 round, after the interest rate hike, it only fell by 1.8% in one month, but halved by 50% in three to six months. What killed it was not the interest rate hike itself, but the liquidity drained by the hike, Luna、 Three arrows, FTX chain detonation. ⚙️ Raising interest rates is not a price switch for Bitcoin. What truly determines the trend is whether the amount of money flowing into Bitcoin is increasing or decreasing.