[Probability of 'U.S. Government Shutdown This Year' on Kalshi Hits Highest Level Since February] BlockBeats News, September 12, according to data from the prediction market Kalshi, the market currently estimates a 54% probability of a U.S. government shutdown this year, marking the highest level in months. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer warned on Thursday that if Republicans refuse to include key healthcare provisions in any agreement, Democrats are prepared to let government funding run dry.