BTC returned above $63000 today, with a reported price of $63318 as of press time, up 1.91% over 24 hours. From the perspective of price performance, bulls have regained the initiative, but derivative data has begun to release different signals.
In the past 24 hours, the market has cleared a total of 1.047 billion US dollars, of which 669 million US dollars were short positions, accounting for nearly 64%. This round of rebound is essentially still a typical short covering push.
However, it is worth noting that there has been a reversal in the data for the 1-hour dimension.
In the past hour, long positions have liquidated $92.71 million, while short positions have only liquidated $4.69 million. This means that the momentum of short selling is declining, and new funds chasing long positions are becoming market buying forces. The cost-effectiveness of continuing to pursue short-term gains unilaterally has significantly decreased.
On the chain side, Lookonchain monitoring shows that the address related to "1011 Insider Whale" transferred 11318 BTC to Binance today, which is approximately $717 million at current prices.
At present, no actual selling behavior has been observed on the chain, and this batch of BTC is still stuck in the exchange wallet. The focus of market attention is not whether these chips have already been sold, but whether they will form potential selling pressure in the future.
Meanwhile, HYPE continues to maintain its strong performance, but the upward momentum is starting to slow down.
At 09:00, HYPE rose by 8.42% at one point; As of 09:30, the increase has fallen back to 7.80%. It is worth noting that the transaction volume actually increased from 21.96 billion US dollars to 32.57 billion US dollars, indicating that funds have not withdrawn, but have continued to change hands at a high level.
This structure often implies that the divergence between long and short positions is widening, rather than a continued strengthening of unilateral trends.
There is also a deviation on the emotional level.
The Fear and Greed Index (FGI) is still in the extreme fear range of 12, but the one hour long short ratio of Binance BTC has risen to 3.60, and the proportion of long accounts has reached 78.25%.
In other words, spot investors are still panicking, but leveraged funds have begun to aggressively pursue long positions.
In history, the combination of "extremely low FGI+extremely high long short ratio" often means that short-term sentiment has already been repaired and the market has entered a high volatility game stage.
In the short term:
• Support attention: around $63000
• Upper pressure: 64500 USD, 65800 USD
If the subsequent spot funds continue to flow in, there is still room for further rebound in this round; If the trading volume cannot continue to increase, one should be wary of technical retracement after the bearish market ends.
Risk Warning: The above content is only for market information sharing and does not constitute any investment advice.
