Kalshi data shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 79%

According to Kalshi data, the probability of the market betting that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 79%, the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 20%, and the probability of lowering interest rates by 25 basis points is 2%. AI interpretation: The consensus in the market that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged in July is extremely stable, reflecting that the current monetary policy path has been fully digested by the market. The extremely low probability of interest rate cuts indicates that investors have completely given up their illusions of turning to easing in the short term. This pricing structure directly locks in the continuity of the high interest rate environment, forcing the capital market to reassess financing cost pressures. Maintaining the status quo is the safest and inevitable choice for the Federal Reserve in the current game of inflation and employment.