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Hello everyone, I am Cannon Teacher. Tonight at 10 o'clock, the most important thing of the week - the monthly line is about to end,
BTC fell to $58888 this morning and is currently consolidating horizontally around 60000 with a few hundred points
Technical structure: There are multiple long solid bearish candlesticks in the 4-hour candlestick chart, and the rebound lacks persistence. The daily price is much lower than the 50 day, 100 day, and 200 day moving averages (at $66971, $70592, and $76516, respectively), indicating a complete bearish structure in the medium term. MACD is slightly negative near the zero axis, RSI is around 33, and the bearish momentum margin has weakened but there is no clear reversal signal yet.
【ETH】
Technical structure: Maintain a bearish position, with prices significantly below the 50 day (1833), 100 day (2010), and 200 day (2290) moving averages. 1500 is the key psychological support, holding it may lead to oversold recovery; If it falls below, look below at 1385-1400. RSI rebounded to around 33, MACD turned slightly positive, and bearish momentum weakened slightly.
The K-line is about to close this month - this is currently the most important variable
The market will close on June 30th (tomorrow), and the monthly chart will be officially finalized. The monthly line level is of decisive significance in judging mid-term trends, and is far more worthy of attention than daily or weekly lines.
From a historical perspective, once the monthly support resistance is confirmed, its effectiveness often lasts for several months or even longer
BTC monthly chart: It opened around 67500 this month, with a low of 58100, and is currently around 59500. It is highly likely to close the bearish candlestick in the physical sector, continuing the downward trend from last month. The monthly closing position will determine the tone for next week and even early July, laying the technical foundation for the rebound in July. If the closing price remains at a low of 59000-60000, the monthly line confirms the continuation of short positions and may continue to be under pressure in early July.
ETH monthly chart: It opened around 1880 this month, with a low of 1512, and is currently around 1570, with a high probability of closing with a long bearish candlestick. The 1500-1550 area is a dense trading zone at the monthly level in the past two years, and it is also the lower edge of the chip intensive zone from July to August 2024. If it can hold above 1500 at the end of this month, there is a possibility of a temporary halt to the decline; If the monthly physical closing is below 1500, the medium-term downward space will be further opened up.
The monthly closing not only affects next week, but also the direction and tone of the entire July. The weekly chart has been bearish for 6 consecutive days, and in history, extreme bearish periods are often accompanied by the need for technical repairs. However, the premise is that the monthly chart must give a clear "stop falling signal" - a long-term downward trend or a bottoming out and rebounding structure.
Tonight's live broadcast core: The monthly closing line is approaching - how to deduce the direction of July after BTC and ETH's K-line is finalized this month? What do closing above 60000 and closing below 58000 mean respectively? See you at 10.
Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is intended to assist investors in understanding information related to the capital market. It does not constitute any investment advice and does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin. The market is risky and investments should be made with caution.
