According to the Bybit Options Weekly Report, BTC fell from $6402 to $581.12 last week, closing at $60206, a 5.96% decrease for the week; ETH fell from $1728 to $1512, closing at $1574, down 8.91% for the week. The AHR999 index fell to 0.287. The PCE in May was 4.1% year-on-year, with a core PCE of 3.4%. BTC and ETH daily RSI have shown a bottom divergence. This week, we will pay attention to JOLTS, ADP, the statements made by Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh at the Portuguese Central Bank Forum on the evening of July 1st, and the non farm payroll data on July 2nd (expected to be 113000, with an unemployment rate of 4.3%).
AI interpretation: Non farm employment data, as a core indicator for measuring the health of the US labor market, directly determines the marginal adjustment space of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The combination of slowing employment growth and rising unemployment rate clearly indicates a substantial weakening of economic momentum. This trend forces the Federal Reserve to reassess the suppressive effect of high interest rate policies on the real economy, in order to provide necessary support for policy shifts. The market will reprice the path of interest rate cuts based on this data, and the cooling of the job market directly weakens the rationality of maintaining tightening policies.
